Operating Rates of Silicon Metal Enterprises in Sichuan-Yunnan Region Weaken, Polysilicon Market Prices Largely Stable [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Conference Summary]

SMM Oct. 29:

Silicon Coal

Price: Prices in Inner Mongolia edged up by about 10 yuan/mt WoW, with the average reaching 1,200 yuan/mt, driven by higher raw coal costs. Prices in other regions held steady, including caking silicon coal in Xinjiang at 1,300-1,650 yuan/mt, non-caking silicon coal averaging 825 yuan/mt, silicon mixed coal in Gansu at 900 yuan/mt, pellet coal at 1,020 yuan/mt, and silicon coal in Shaanxi at 750 yuan/mt.

Supply: Diverged, mainly depending on supply to south-west China. Washing plants mainly supplying silicon plants in the south-west saw lower operating rates recently, while those mainly supplying northern silicon plants posted a slight increase in operating rates.

Demand: Overall procurement remained need-based. Demand for caking silicon coal dropped due to production halts at silicon plants in the south-west during the dry season, while demand for non-caking silicon coal rose as operating rates increased at northern silicon plants.

Silicon Metal

Price: Spot silicon metal prices remained low and range-bound. SMM’s price for oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China stood at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt yesterday, flat from the previous day. Futures prices fluctuated, with the SI2512 contract hitting a low of 8,975 yuan/mt before closing at 8,980 yuan/mt yesterday, unchanged from the previous day.

Production:

Operating rates at silicon enterprises in the south and north diverged. As the dry season approaches in Sichuan and Yunnan, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan recently implemented production cuts, leading to a decline in silicon metal supply.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: SMM data showed that social inventory of silicon metal in major regions totaled 559,000 mt on Oct. 23, down 3,000 mt WoW. This included 123,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 3,000 mt WoW, and 436,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including unregistered warrants and spot inventory), down 6,000 mt WoW. Recently, some cargoes in Xinjiang warehouses continued to be transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Price

DMC: Current offers were 10,800-11,200 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. As monomer plants near the end of previous orders, back-and-forth negotiations between upstream and downstream intensified. To attract new orders, monomer plants began cutting prices to boost sales.

D4: Current offers were 11,200-12,000 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

107 Silicone Rubber: Current offers were 11,400-11,600 yuan/mt, flat WoW.

Raw Silicone Rubber: Current offers were 11,500-12,000 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Silicone oil: Current offers were 12,500-13,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW.

Production:

Overall operating rates remained relatively low, with supply-side pressure easing slightly.

Inventory:

Inventories at some monomer enterprises increased slightly WoW. Although downstream inquiries were numerous recently, order signing was limited.

Polysilicon

Price:

N-type recharging polysilicon was offered at 50.9-55 yuan/kg, granular polysilicon at 50-51 yuan/kg, and the polysilicon price index was 52.66 yuan/kg. Market prices were largely stable. The market awaited the latest offers from the new round of month-end order signing and updates from this week's meetings.

Production:

Domestic polysilicon production in October was estimated at around 134,000 mt. Supply still exceeded downstream demand. Production cuts were expected in some regions in November, with output projected to decline MoM.

Inventory:

Polysilicon inventories rose slightly WoW. The pace of order signing slowed down. Wafer prices were under pressure, and combined with this week's meetings and their own inventory marketing, enterprises held a strong wait-and-see sentiment towards order signing.

Wafer

Price

Market prices for N-type 18X wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers were 1.33-1.38 yuan/piece. 183 wafer prices remained supported, while 210N wafers saw some sales at 0.02 yuan/piece lower. Supply-demand for 210R wafers was weaker compared to other sizes, and trading activity was relatively chaotic.

Production

Wafer production increases in October were relatively significant. Operating rates at top-tier enterprises increased rather than decreased, and some specialized factories also had plans to raise production. Overall, based on association quotas for Q4, wafer enterprises have basically confirmed production cuts for November-December.

Inventory

Recent internal transfers of wafer inventories were noticeable, with downstream raw material inventories shifting upstream to finished product inventories, leading to a slight overall inventory buildup trend. Total inventory was currently below reasonable levels, with enterprises shipping steadily.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Current domestic prices for inner-layer sand were 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand were 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand were 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. For imported sand, as the long-term contract negotiation period approaches, subsequent demand from China still risks weakening. Domestic crucible and integrated enterprises plan to again pressure down the price of imported overseas sand. Most enterprises' purchase expectations are below 80,000 yuan/mt. Therefore, before the price negotiations for imported sand conclude, trading volume for domestic sand will struggle to increase.

Production

In October, domestic silica enterprises saw a slight increase in operating rates compared to September. However, top-tier enterprises are expected to moderately reduce their operating rates going forward, leading to a projected slight decline in production.

Inventory

Silica enterprises have recently experienced an increase in inventory, while crucible enterprises have not yet made purchases.